March 2017

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Don’t Be a Square: 10 Tips for Betting on Football

Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says.

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with fun88 Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

7. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books.

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

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Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

4. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

3. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

And where does all that money go?

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses.

So, how much should you bet a game?

9. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies.

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns.

6. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. . “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

8. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline.

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world.

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

5.

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

10. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Slim underdogs regularly win outright.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.

1. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

2.

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks

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How to do a free online background check

You can find dozens of background check agencies online.

If you do reject a potential tenant or employee (even semi-informal employees like domestic workers) based on a background check from a company that isn’t a CRA, you could wind up in trouble.

All consumers are entitled to get a free copy of their credit report once a year from the three reporting agencies – Equifax, Experian and Trans Union.

After that, you might want to drill down to discover any felony and misdemeanor convictions on the county and city level. You might also dig up information on a person’s habits or character that a professional might not consider. Maybe you’ll find a picture of yourself or a comment you made years ago somewhere that’s a little embarrassing.

The more information you have about a person, the better your searches will be. Look around at several companies to find the average price for a background check and avoid any companies that are too low or too high.

These things will pop up and hurt your chances the next time you apply for a loan or a job. Fortunately, you can take steps to correct or remove this damaging information.

Have you done an online background check of yourself lately? There are several reasons you should.

It’s also a very good idea to do a background check before taking on a roommate or going out m88 on a date with that new crush you met online.  Click here for four sites that can really help you learn about someone. To subscribe to Kim’s free email newsletters, sign-up at: http://www.komando.com/newsletters.

In most cases, a credit report can’t be pulled without a legitimate business purpose and written permission. If you are performing a background check as a landlord or employer – or for credit, medical or insurance reasons — you can’t use just any service.

You can find a fairly complete list of CRAs here on my website.

If you want to save some money and you have some time, you can do many of the same checks yourself. Note that you can request and dispute the information that these CRAs have on file for you.

For checking on potential roommates or romantic partners, you can use just about any service or (legal) method.

There might be erroneous information about you floating around the Internet or in your credit report. To get the podcast, watch the show or find the station nearest you, visit: http://www.komando.com/listen. You never know what sort of worrying or dangerous details could be lurking in someone’s past.

Copyright 2013, WestStar Multimedia Entertainment. The list is helpfully divided into categories such as credit reporting, employment history, insurance, renting and so on. Knowing a middle name and date of birth will help you weed out people with similar names.

The simplest option for a background check is to hire a professional service. Fortunately, several ways won’t cost you a thing.

Before I continue, I should point out a tricky fact about background checks. Keep an eye out for civil judgments, too, such as a bankruptcies and court orders to pay debts.

Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, you have to use a Consumer Reporting Agency. However, you probably won’t see important details about whether they’ve been arrested or evicted in the past.

If you aren’t completely sure you’ve found the right person, don’t act on the information until you’ve verified it is actually them. A CRA has to maintain certain standards for data protection and offer dispute resolution.

You will need to watch out for scam companies. To find it, go to your state’s official government website or find the information you need at the National Center for State Courts. Make sure you search every state that the person you’re checking has lived in.

A Google search could turn up other things about the person that might make you think twice, too. Being penalized for something that isn’t your fault isn’t fun.

. They comb Google, Facebook and other information websites to find out details that the person has willingly shared.

Because checking people’s background is such a pressing need, there are dozens of ways to go about this. All rights reserved.

Kim Komando hosts the nation’s largest talk radio show about consumer electronics, computers and the Internet. A good strategy for screening a roommate would be to ask him or her to volunteer a report.

Luckily, most court information is public record

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