Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says.
Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”
Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with fun88 Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.
7. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books.
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
4. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”
3. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”
And where does all that money go?
While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses.
So, how much should you bet a game?
9. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”
However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies.
So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns.
6. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”
Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. . “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make.
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
8. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline.
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world.
Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”
And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.
So, how much are we gambling each football season?
10. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”
“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Slim underdogs regularly win outright.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”
“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.
1. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”
But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks
You can find dozens of background check agencies online.
If you do reject a potential tenant or employee (even semi-informal employees like domestic workers) based on a background check from a company that isn’t a CRA, you could wind up in trouble.
All consumers are entitled to get a free copy of their credit report once a year from the three reporting agencies – Equifax, Experian and Trans Union.
After that, you might want to drill down to discover any felony and misdemeanor convictions on the county and city level. You might also dig up information on a person’s habits or character that a professional might not consider. Maybe you’ll find a picture of yourself or a comment you made years ago somewhere that’s a little embarrassing.
The more information you have about a person, the better your searches will be. Look around at several companies to find the average price for a background check and avoid any companies that are too low or too high.
These things will pop up and hurt your chances the next time you apply for a loan or a job. Fortunately, you can take steps to correct or remove this damaging information.
Have you done an online background check of yourself lately? There are several reasons you should.
It’s also a very good idea to do a background check before taking on a roommate or going out m88 on a date with that new crush you met online. Click here for four sites that can really help you learn about someone. To subscribe to Kim’s free email newsletters, sign-up at: http://www.komando.com/newsletters.
In most cases, a credit report can’t be pulled without a legitimate business purpose and written permission. If you are performing a background check as a landlord or employer – or for credit, medical or insurance reasons — you can’t use just any service.
You can find a fairly complete list of CRAs here on my website.
If you want to save some money and you have some time, you can do many of the same checks yourself. Note that you can request and dispute the information that these CRAs have on file for you.
For checking on potential roommates or romantic partners, you can use just about any service or (legal) method.
There might be erroneous information about you floating around the Internet or in your credit report. To get the podcast, watch the show or find the station nearest you, visit: http://www.komando.com/listen. You never know what sort of worrying or dangerous details could be lurking in someone’s past.
Copyright 2013, WestStar Multimedia Entertainment. The list is helpfully divided into categories such as credit reporting, employment history, insurance, renting and so on. Knowing a middle name and date of birth will help you weed out people with similar names.
The simplest option for a background check is to hire a professional service. Fortunately, several ways won’t cost you a thing.
Before I continue, I should point out a tricky fact about background checks. Keep an eye out for civil judgments, too, such as a bankruptcies and court orders to pay debts.
Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, you have to use a Consumer Reporting Agency. However, you probably won’t see important details about whether they’ve been arrested or evicted in the past.
If you aren’t completely sure you’ve found the right person, don’t act on the information until you’ve verified it is actually them. A CRA has to maintain certain standards for data protection and offer dispute resolution.
You will need to watch out for scam companies. To find it, go to your state’s official government website or find the information you need at the National Center for State Courts. Make sure you search every state that the person you’re checking has lived in.
A Google search could turn up other things about the person that might make you think twice, too. Being penalized for something that isn’t your fault isn’t fun.
. They comb Google, Facebook and other information websites to find out details that the person has willingly shared.
Because checking people’s background is such a pressing need, there are dozens of ways to go about this. All rights reserved.
Kim Komando hosts the nation’s largest talk radio show about consumer electronics, computers and the Internet. A good strategy for screening a roommate would be to ask him or her to volunteer a report.
In 2009, they look fantastic. I found myself a winner. That gives us a hint, pick a good team.
I opened up the NFL Futures List with odds to win Superbowl XLIV and folks, I didn’t get past the first team.
By: Rich Allen
Rich Allen is the #1 Stastical Sports Bettor in the world you can check out his system for free at www.sportsbettingprofessor.com
Is it wise to bet every week on a front runner. At defensive line, opposing teams face murderers row in past Pro Bowlers, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Derrick Burgess; Ty Warren, the only man never to have been to Hawaii on NFL business is arguably the best of the bunch. The New England Patriots are the odds on favorites to win the Superbowl (bet $100 to win $425) and I have to tell you, they look great. They found 2 starting DBs in free agency, Leigh Bodden and Sean Springs, and spent their top draft pick on Safety Pat Chung, and another 2nd round pick on m88 Cornerback Darius Butler. Betting the Patriots has been a profitable endeavor the last 2 seasons. Brady is no dummy and he realizes that he has a team of veterans and the future is now for New England. This team has most of the same offensive weapons it had in their record breaking 2007 season and there is no reason to believe New England won’t be the top offensive team in the league in 2009. In 2007, the 16-0 team was 12-4 against the spread and in 2008, despite losing the reigning MVP, Tom Brady, they finished the year 11-5 and 9-7 against the spread.
On defense, the team has done a lot to shore up the secondary that so hurt them in 2008. If the Patriots stay healthy and march to a Superbowl, as the oddsmakers suggest they may, then betting on the New England Patriots every week will prove to be a profitable endeavor, as it was the last 2 years.
In 2008, the best teams against the spread were good teams overall (as usual). Baltimore was 11-5 overall and 12-4 against the spread, The New York Giants were 12-4 overall and against the spread, and the Tennessee Titans were 13-3 overall and 12-4 against the spread. The main difference I see is that their running game is even stronger than it was in 2007. Look for New England to not score quite as much as they did in 2007, but they should win the time of possession battle most every game.
. Fred Taylor has been thrown into the RB mix with Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Patriot great Kevin Faulk. Brady looked sharp in their first preseason game and rumor has it that he rehabilitated his knee with a furor and in 2009, he is looking to prove something
It was very much the Donnel Pumphrey show, as SDSU’s running back surpassed Marshall Faulk to become the school’s all-time rushing leader (4,651 yards). The Bears, who have given up more than 600 yards on the ground in their first two games, host Texas next week. In its only game against a Power 5 opponent in the regular season, the San Diego State Aztecs made a huge statement with a 45-40 win over California. But SDSU’s Damontae Kazee intercepted Cal’s Davis Webb (5TDs, 3ints) with nine seconds left.. Pumphrey gutted the California defense for 281 rushing yards and three touchdowns (the fifth best rushing performance in school history) while the Aztecs turned three Cal turnovers into 21 points. Cal made it interesting late, recovering an onside kick with less than a minute to play and a chance to pull out a win
But the newly surfaced documents could spell an end to the 74-year-old legend’s Cooperstown aspirations.
- John Dowd, MLB investigator
“This does it. He refused to give them to us.”
“Since we submitted the application earlier this year, we committed to MLB that we would not comment on specific matters relating to reinstatement,” the statement read. Postal Inspection Service in October 1989. For the next 15 years, he insisted he never gambled, then in 2004 admitted he had but only as a manager. Rose, who would certainly be in the Hall of Fame if not for his ban, has long lobbied to be allowed back into the sport.
“We knew that [Bertolini] recorded the bets, and that he bet himself, but we never had his records,” Dowd told ESPN. This closes the door,” said John Dowd, the former federal prosecutor who led MLB’s 1989 investigation.
. The sports network said the papers’ authenticity has been verified by two people who took part in the raid, which was part of an unrelated mail fraud probe. The actual notebook has remained under court-ordered seal for 26 years and is currently stored in the National Archives’ New York office.
Pete Rose’s long insistence that he never gambled on baseball while playing the game may be unraveling, after ESPN unearthed documents it says shows he bet on the Cincinnati Reds while a player-manager in the last year of his illustrious career.
This closes the door,” said John Dowd, the former federal prosecutor
Rose, the sport’s all-time leader with 4,256 hits, has been banned from the sport since 1989. To be sure, I’m eager to sit down with [MLB commissioner Rob] Manfred to address my entire history — the good and the bad — and my long personal journey since baseball. That meeting likely will come sometime after the All-Star break. “We tried to get them. “I need to maintain that. Therefore at this point, it’s not appropriate to comment on any specifics.”
Dowd said his team had sought the records in order to prove Rose bet on the sport while a player.
Rose issued a statement to ESPN through his lawyer, Raymond Genco.
Major League Baseball has historically reserved its harshest punishment for players who gamble on the sport, claiming such wagers affect baseball’s integrity – even if a player such as Rose bet on his own team to win.
In the five months covered by the notebook, Rose allegedly placed at least one bet on baseball 30 times, as well as placing wagers on other sports, ESPN reported. Most of the bets were for about $2,000.
The documents obtained by ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” are copies of pages from a notebook seized from the home of former Rose associate Michael Bertolini during a raid by the U.S
A recreational activity is supposed to be refreshing and relaxing, but something like gambling is contrary to the very purpose of recreation. In the following sections of this Buzzle article, we discuss the negative effects of gambling on the individual and society.
? The costs of treating compulsive gamblers are huge. The decision to gamble money is based on three parameters namely; how much to bet, the predictability of the event, and the conditions agreed upon, between the gamblers. The effect is similar to that of having a drug or a drink, which is why gambling changes one’s mental state and mood.
Gambling = Thoughtless Expenditure + Waste of Time
? Children of parents who are problem gamblers or gambling addicts tend to feel abandoned and angry, further increasing stress and leading to strained family relations.
? Studies show that children with a sibling or parent addicted to gambling, are more likely to take to substance abuse.
? People continue gambling with the greed of winning money. It causes a decline in his/her work performance, thus hampering his career.
? People who fall prey to gambling tend to remain away from their families and waste money on other bad practices. The skill of a gambler lies in weighing the three parameters and making a decision about what amount should be staked and how much should be expected in return.
Initially, one looks at gambling as a way to run away from life’s problems, or from stress, anger, and loneliness. It can drag you into crime, gambling isn’t fun.
Mental and physical health problems, financial issues, and conflicts in the family are among the common negative effects of gambling. This proves to be detrimental to their social and family life. Betting is a mentally taxing activity, and as one goes on risking more and more money, anxiety starts building.
? They start borrowing money and take secret loans. You could be at gunpoint or holding the gun. A study by the same university suggested that 73% of the individuals who are imprisoned are found to be problem gamblers.
? As gambling leads to increased criminal activities, in a way, gamblers add to the burden on prisons and the legal system.
? Gambling at the cost of one’s job results in a decline in the quality of his professional life. Card games, coin tossing, and dice-based games are some non-casino based forms of gambling. They engage in gambling activities at the cost of their time with family and friends. In spite of the losses incurred, they continue betting. Due to lost mental peace, they may ill-treat their spouse and children. Because of this, they land in worse situations and take the wrong decisions in life.
? According to the University of New York, in people with alcohol use disorders, the chances of developing an addiction to gambling are 23 times higher.
Compulsive gambling leads to bankruptcy
? Gambling is practiced as a means of recreation. The addiction robs a gambler of all the productive time and leads to loss of efficiency at work. Thus, gambling can have a grave economic impact which is difficult to reverse.
Games offered in casinos, table games like poker, Red Dog, and Blackjack, as also electronic games like Slot Machine and Video Poker are some of the common types of gambling. Thus, gambling practices cause a huge financial burden on the families of the affected and on the society at large.
? Addiction to gambling has been linked with substance abuse. The National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) describes this type of gambling behavior as problem gambling.
? Problem gamblers and addicts tend to abuse their family members. Some go that way to forget the sorrow of losing big sums when gambling.
? Research has shown that gambling can lead to harmful behavior in people. Their debt keeps building and it may reach an amount that exceeds their capacity to repay.
? A majority of those addicted to gambling have substance abuse disorders.
Gambling refers to the betting of money on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the intent of winning additional wealth. According to the National Research Council, 10 to 17% of the children of problem gamblers have been abused and so have 25 to 50% of the partners of problems gamblers.
? According to a study by the George State University, 50% of the problem gamblers commit crime. The stress of risking huge amounts of money or the frustration after losing it can increase the tendency of abuse in gamblers. Six to eight million people in America are estimated to have a gambling problem.
? Gamblers often exhibit mood swings and a strangely secretive behavior. They tend to stay away from their near ones, resulting in distrust between them and their loved ones.
? According to a research by NCPG, 76 percent of problem gamblers are likely to have a major depressive disorder.
? The addiction to gambling can leave one in bankruptcy. It only leads to a thoughtless expenditure of money and valuables.
? Gambling can lead to criminal activities. The two go hand in hand. Some take to substance abuse to supplement the high they get from winning huge sums while gambling. Forget satisfaction or peace, it is not even refreshing in the real sense. The addiction gets on to the gamblers to such an extent that they fail to think wisely before acting. When they lose the money they had risked, they further gamble to recover the lost amount and it becomes a vicious circle even they can’t escape from.
? Gambling has proven to be addictive. To add to the so-called merry atmosphere, gamblers often smoke or drink while playing.. Rehabilitating the gambling addicts needs money and time, and the process is not very easy. Addiction to gambling, coupled with substance abuse can make the gamblers physically abusive towards their family. Their mental state can even lead to suicidal tendencies.
? An Austrian study said that around 1 in 5 suicidal patients had a gambling problem.
? Apart from absence at work and drop in efficiency, a common observation is that gamblers tend to steal money and engage in fraudulent behavior to recover from financial losses incurred when gambling, or to get more money to bet.
? Substances of abuse are served at casinos and in pubs and clubs, thus increasing the likelihood of gamblers consuming them. The addiction has negative effects on one’s physical and mental health and it proves to be detrimental to one’s social, personal, and professional life. The addiction leads people to continue with gambling irrespective of whether they earn or lose in the deal. It soon becomes a habit that can’t be broken.
? Over time, the practice of gambling starts becoming a habit and begins to have damaging effects at psychological, physical, and social levels. The greed never ends and they keep betting more and more. On giving a serious consideration to the negative effects of gambling, we realize that it is best avoided.
? The stress from gambling may lead to health issues like ulcers, stomach problems, muscle pains, headaches, and problems with sleep.
? Additionally, rehabilitation and public assistance systems are taxed.
? Similar to how an individual keeps consuming substances like drugs or alcohol to experience an altered mental state, he continues to gamble. Over time, it becomes a habit, and eventually an obsession that can’t be overcome. Sports betting and arbitrage betting are the other types
The Explorers next job will be to actually win a game. Instead, it rewards teams that do well against good opponents.
7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools and 123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin College Football Ratings. The worst-rated A school is Florida International at No. Following its horrendous loss, Michigan ended up being ranked No. 57 after the loss. 5 by both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll going into the game. The ratings are updated following each week’s games and published in USA Today on Wednesdays.
While betting on sports is only legal in a few places in the United States, such as Las Vegas, millions of office workers are involved in sports pools every week now that the football season has arrived.
For those who wager, it may be helpful to put some science on your side when you wager, and one of the best places to do that is with the Sagarin College Football Ratings.
When you know that more than $700 million can be bet on one game–the Super Bowl–in only Las Vegas, then you understand that billions were bet illegally on the Super Bowl last year in the United States and in offshore sports books around the world.
Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical measure of a team’s strength.
1) Washington, one of the poor to mediocre teams in the country the last several years, was rated No. 143 after its opening loss) and Buffalo (ranked No. Georgia Tech was rated No. 5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by Georgia Tech, was rated No. Good luck, La Salle, and God speed.
Ursinus College is not a Division 1 school (which includes the 242 teams with La Salle), not a Division II team (which includes another 157 teams), but a Division III team. La Salle is a Catholic university located in Philadelphia.
Michigan was ranked No. The Irish failed to score a touchdown for the first time ever in their home opener.
A hypothetical victory margin is determined by comparing the rating of the two teams after adding 2.93 points to the home team. The home edge will vary during the season.
4) Wyoming, a small school and never among the nation’s top teams, was ranked No. 174 (56 AA teams are rated better), and their play reflects their rating. 40 by Sagarin.
USA Today, the largest circulation newspaper in the United States, is the nation’s daily newspaper and carries the Sagarin College Football Ratings. 41 by Sagarin following its 23-3 home victory over Virginia.
If there is a way for the NCAA to assert its superior power, it does so by making everything more difficult and confusing, similar to your United States government and its IRS tax code which could reduce a sane person to tears just reading it.
La Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus 28-0. The worst-rated AA school is the No. 145 after its opening loss) face off in week two. For Sagarin ratings and more detailed information go to: www.usatoday.com
Folks in the gaming business know that more than a billion dollars is wagered on every Monday Night Football game during the season.
Only Division I (both A and AA) are counted for rating and schedule strength during the season.
Following the first week of college football action, here are some facts that interested me about Sagarin’s first-week ratings:
. Ursinus is not a planet but a real liberal arts college in Pennsylvania.
2) Michigan State, another short end of the stick team for far too long, was rated No. 31 after hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home opener.
6) Temple (ranked No. 38 following its upset of mighty Michigan 34-32 on Michigan’s home field. 242 La Salle Explorers. 36 after steamrolling over UAB 55-18 in its home opener.
A diminishing-returns principle exists to prevent teams from building up ratings by running up large victory margins against weak teams. Now you can better understand why La Salle College is ranked last among 242 Division I schools.
You will have to forgive the NCAA for taking titles that have been used for years and are perfectly clear, then renaming them and creating confusion in the process.
Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MIT mathematics graduate, these computer ratings are for Division I-A (what the NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB) Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what the NCAA now calls the Football Championship (FC) Subdivision) teams.
The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them
by: Ed Bagley
3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was rated No. 2. Both teams are among the 7 worst Division I-A teams in the country, joining Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke, Utah State and Florida International.
The first job for La Salle this year will be to score a touchdown, or any points, including a field goal or touchback. The win was the biggest upset in college football history as no AA team had ever beaten a ranked team.
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does not factor in scoring margin
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line.
How the Opening Line Is Made
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. Reasons for such adjustments include:
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.
Why the Line Changes
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).